After a sharp decline, the construction machinery and commercial vehicle industries are expected to recover

Judging from the overall market operation, the production and sales of my country's construction machinery and commercial vehicle industry will decline significantly in 2022. According to statistics from the China Construction Machinery Industry Association, the sales of major products in my country's construction machinery industry in 2022, such as excavators, loaders, truck cranes, crawler cranes, industrial vehicles, road rollers, pavers, aerial work vehicles, etc., will be higher than in 2021. There are varying degrees of decline every year, with only bulldozers, graders, elevating work platforms and other products achieving sales growth.

Sales of major products in China's construction machinery industry in 2022 (unit: units, %)

　(Compiled by e-works, data source: China Construction Machinery Industry Association)

According to statistics from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, my country's commercial vehicle production and sales in 2022 will complete 3.185 million units and 3.3 million units respectively, a year-on-year decrease of 31.9% and 31.2%, showing a double-digit decline.

China's commercial vehicle market production and sales in 2022 (unit: 10,000 units, %)

　(Compiled by e-works, data source: China Association of Automobile Manufacturers)

From Judging from the 2022 performance forecasts released by listed companies in my country's construction machinery and commercial vehicle industries, many listed companies will see serious declines in performance in 2022, and some even suffer losses.

Sany Heavy Industry expects to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 4 billion to 4.6 billion yuan in 2022, which will decrease by 8.033 billion yuan to 7.433 billion yuan compared with the same period last year. , a year-on-year decrease of 66.76% to 61.77%; it is expected that the non-net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in 2022 will be 2.8 billion to 3.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.491 billion yuan to 6.891 billion yuan compared with the same period last year, a year-on-year decrease72.79% to 66.96%.

Zoomlion predicts that the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in 2022 is expected to be between 2.25 billion yuan and 2.45 billion yuan, a decrease of 60.92%-64.11% from the same period last year; it is expected that in 2022 Non-net profits attributable to shareholders of listed companies were RMB 1,000,000,000 to RMB 1,500,000, a decrease of 74.26% -82.84% compared with the same period last year.

Sunward Intelligent expects that the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in 2022 will be negative, with a loss of 800 million yuan - 1.15 billion yuan; deducting non-net profits will be negative, with a loss of 100,000 yuan - 145,000,000 yuan.

SINOTRUK expects the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in 2022 to be 176 million yuan - 260 million yuan, a decrease of 75% - 83% compared with the same period last year; excluding non-net profit: RMB 165 million to RMB 243 million, a decrease of 75% to 83% compared with the same period last year.

FAW Jiefang estimates that the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in 2022 will be 320 million yuan to 410 million yuan, a decrease of 91.79%-89.49% from the same period last year; excluding non-net profit will be negative Value, the loss is expected to be 1.72 billion yuan to 1.63 billion yuan, and non-net profit will decrease by 148.03%-145.51% compared with the same period last year.

On the whole, my country’s construction machinery and commercial vehicle industry will decline rapidly in 2022, mainly affected by multiple unfavorable factors: First, the slowdown in macroeconomic growth, the complexity of the new crown epidemic in various parts of the country Changes, poor logistics, and restrictions on production and life have led to an overall slowdown in market demand. Second, the infrastructure and real estate markets have declined, and the effective construction rate of projects has been insufficient, which has had a certain impact on market sales. Third, the prices of raw materials such as steel and crude oil fluctuated at high levels, and shipping freight prices were high, leading to intensified periodic competition and a sharp decline in corporate profit margins.

However, entering 2023, there are many factors that are conducive to the stable development of the construction machinery and commercial vehicle industries: including my country's major and decisive victory in epidemic prevention and control, the strengthening of national macroeconomic policy control, With the improvement of coordination and cooperation of various policies, real estate will gradually bottom out, and the role of investment promotion will be strengthened; major projects and major projects will be started one after another; infrastructure construction will be accelerated, special bond issuance will be accelerated, and new loans from policy banks will increase; and overseas markets Strong demand, etc. These will promote the recovery of the construction machinery and commercial vehicle industries.

The China Construction Machinery Industry Association predicts that in the first quarter of 2023, construction machineryThe industry will face certain pressure, but as time goes by, the pressure will gradually ease, and the domestic market demand throughout the year will be better than in 2022; the construction machinery industry will achieve effective improvement in quality and reasonable growth in quantity. At the same time, industry insiders said that special bonds have helped the infrastructure industry rebound, and the number of project starts has continued to increase. At the same time, policies in the real estate industry have gradually become looser, and construction machinery sales are expected to rise. According to predictions from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, as the economy recovers, demand for commercial vehicles will also bottom out. Cumulative sales of domestic commercial vehicles in 2023 are expected to be 3.8 million units, a year-on-year increase of 15%.

In short, the combination of multiple factors such as poor logistics, restricted production and life caused by multiple epidemics, a decline in the real estate market, insufficient effective project operating rates, and high and volatile prices of raw materials such as steel and crude oil have Under this situation, my country's construction machinery and commercial vehicle industry will decline rapidly in 2022. As the impact of the epidemic gradually disappears, various regions regard infrastructure investment as an important means of stabilizing economic growth, and real estate industry policies are gradually optimized. At the same time, overseas market demand is strong, and my country's construction machinery and commercial vehicle industries are expected to recover in 2023.