Understand the changes that will happen to photovoltaic and wind power in 2019 through the first batch of affordable grid-connected projects

The first batch of 250 wind power and photovoltaic grid parity projects in 2019 with an installed capacity of 20.76 million kilowatts are officially released! According to a notice jointly issued by the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration, a long-term fixed price electricity purchase and sale contract (not less than 20 years) will be signed with the wind power and photovoltaic power grid parity project units based on the local coal-fired benchmark grid-connected electricity price stipulated by the state at the time of project approval (recording). ).

The affordable grid-connected projects approved this time cover 16 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities). Among them, photovoltaic power generation, which continues the industry’s high boom cycle, is still the protagonist, with a total of 168 projects, and the installed capacity has exceeded 14.78 million kilowatts. Wind power, which has been developing steadily, is "slightly inferior" in terms of quantity and installed capacity, with 56 and 4.51 million kilowatts respectively. The specific distribution is as follows:

From the perspective of installed capacity, Henan, Shaanxi and Guangxi are the three largest Ranking among the "top three" photovoltaic grid parity projects in this list, Heilongjiang follows closely behind with a target value of 1.65 million kilowatts. Jilin, Henan, and Heilongjiang are among the top countries with affordable wind power grid access. Judging from the number of projects (pilots), Liaoning is "unique" in terms of photovoltaic grid parity, while "next door" Jilin will further strengthen wind power grid parity pilot projects. Obviously, for the consumption and utilization of renewable energy in 2019, the Northeast region will press the "fast forward button" in this field.

As far as distributed power generation pilots are concerned, the number of wind power and photovoltaic power generation transactions in the pilot areas increased to 26 in 2019. Among them, the newly added scale reached 1.47 million kilowatts, and the total capacity limit reached 1.65 million kilowatts. This involves Hubei (Tianmen City, Jingmen City), Henan (Hebi City, Yuzhou City, Lankao County), Shanxi (Yuncheng City, Shuozhou City), Heilongjiang (Harbin City), Tianjin, Jiangsu (Suzhou City, Changzhou City, Yancheng City, Haimen City, Jiangyin City, Jiangyan District of Taizhou City), Ningxia (Ningdong Energy and Chemical Industry Base), Hebei (Baoding City, Handan City, Wu'an City), Shaanxi (Yulin, Weinan City), Anhui (Chizhou City, Tongling City, Ma'anshan City).

This is also following the "Notice on Actively Promoting the Work on Affordable Grid Access for Wind Power and Photovoltaic Power Generation without Subsidies", "Notice on Establishing and Improving the Guarantee Mechanism for Renewable Energy Power Consumption" and "2019 Since the "Distributed Power Generation Market-oriented Transaction Pilot List", affordable access to the Internet has once again appeared in the top-level design. There are various indications that renewableThe era of energy grid parity has begun. With the large-scale development of wind power and photovoltaic power generation and the rapid advancement of technology, some areas have basically met the conditions for parity with coal-fired benchmark on-grid electricity prices.

Public information shows that the average construction costs of wind power and photovoltaic power stations put into operation in 2017 were reduced by 18.9% and 44.8% respectively compared with five years ago. The industry believes that the space for reducing technology costs has been very limited so far. To achieve affordable Internet access, it is necessary to focus on non-technical costs. From the consumer side, unsubsidized and affordable wind power and photovoltaic power will further reduce user-side electricity prices and further promote the large-scale spread of renewable energy. Perhaps two years from now, there will be a large number of affordable wind power and photovoltaic projects, and then the above-mentioned special support will no longer be provided.

This also means that in 2019, it has been clear that photovoltaic and wind power will get rid of the "policy infancy" orientation, and the scale will be determined by subsidies through classified management to accelerate the industry's grid parity. Since the scale and subsidy standards have not been clear before, the industry generally expects low new installed capacity in the domestic renewable energy market in 2019. However, judging from the current situation, with the accelerated implementation of wind power and photovoltaic grid parity project policies and the improvement of the priority level of grid consumption, the demand for renewable energy power generation will change from the previous sluggish state.

Industry analysts generally point out that with the introduction of policies in the second quarter, the advancement of project declarations and the tightening of existing project management, project construction will accelerate in the third quarter, and the industry turning point is approaching. Relevant functional departments attach great importance to non-subsidy projects, which means that the competitive allocation of projects requiring subsidies may exceed expectations, but their protective attitude towards the stable development of domestic market demand has not changed. Against this background, affordable access to the Internet provides high prosperity development expectations that stabilize the market, and more importantly, the scale of this increase is theoretically unlimited - which will greatly boost market confidence.

　(Original title: Understand the changes that will happen to photovoltaic and wind power in 2019 through the first batch of affordable Internet projects)